AI Grounds
Open AI Grounds on a desktop
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AI Grounds
These interactive lessons need a larger screen. Please continue on a desktop or laptop computer.
Guided discovery
See which repeated intervals capture the fixed true mean.
Independent normal observations; known population SD 4. Simulator truth μ = 20 stays fixed. Each of 100 sample means is generated directly from its normal sampling law; individual observations are not shown.
Observations represented by each mean. Rescales the same standardized draws and margins. Use arrow keys on the slider. Press Enter or leave the number field to apply an exact edit.
Changes margins around the same sample means, not the true mean or centers. Use arrow keys on the slider. Press Enter or leave the number field to apply an exact edit.
Select one reproducible set of 100 independent simulated sample means. Use arrow keys on the slider. Press Enter or leave the number field to apply an exact edit.
Batch 1 of 20; 100 means, each representing size 25. Known SD 4; selected confidence 95%; fixed true mean 20.
Confidence edits reuse the means. Size or spread edits rescale the same standardized draws for a paired comparison; Next batch uses new draws.
✓ Indigo solid interval and dot: captures μ = 20. × Rust dashed interval and cross: misses. The vertical dashed line is the fixed true mean. All intervals in a batch have the same width; sample means move their centers. Scroll for all 100 labeled rows; focus the plot and use PageDown or arrow keys.
Batch 1: 96 of 100 intervals include μ = 20; 4 miss. Selected confidence is 95%, rather than a promise of exactly 95 captures.
Capture fraction of this finite batch.
96.0%
96 / 100 intervals
Repeated-procedure level under the model.
95%
z* ≈ 1.9600
Same full width for all current intervals.
3.1359
2E = 2 × 1.9600 × 4 / √25
| Interval | Sample mean | Lower | Upper | Captures μ? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20.6149 | 19.0470 | 22.1829 | Yes |
| 2 | 20.0379 | 18.4699 | 21.6059 | Yes |
| 3 | 21.2274 | 19.6594 | 22.7953 | Yes |
| 4 | 21.1863 | 19.6183 | 22.7542 | Yes |
| 5 | 19.6091 | 18.0411 | 21.1771 | Yes |
| 6 | 20.3893 | 18.8213 | 21.9572 | Yes |
| 7 | 20.6325 | 19.0645 | 22.2005 | Yes |
| 8 | 19.4372 | 17.8692 | 21.0051 | Yes |
| 9 | 20.2108 | 18.6429 | 21.7788 | Yes |
| 10 | 18.9615 | 17.3935 | 20.5294 | Yes |
| 11 | 20.3560 | 18.7880 | 21.9240 | Yes |
| 12 | 20.5361 | 18.9681 | 22.1040 | Yes |
| 13 | 20.4720 | 18.9040 | 22.0399 | Yes |
| 14 | 18.8977 | 17.3297 | 20.4656 | Yes |
| 15 | 19.7372 | 18.1692 | 21.3052 | Yes |
| 16 | 19.7079 | 18.1399 | 21.2759 | Yes |
| 17 | 20.3745 | 18.8065 | 21.9425 | Yes |
| 18 | 21.4173 | 19.8493 | 22.9852 | Yes |
| 19 | 18.7241 | 17.1561 | 20.2921 | Yes |
| 20 | 20.4991 | 18.9312 | 22.0671 | Yes |
| 21 | 19.6679 | 18.0999 | 21.2358 | Yes |
| 22 | 21.5013 | 19.9333 | 23.0692 | Yes |
| 23 | 20.4715 | 18.9035 | 22.0395 | Yes |
| 24 | 20.4146 | 18.8467 | 21.9826 | Yes |
| 25 | 19.4284 | 17.8604 | 20.9964 | Yes |
| 26 | 19.6055 | 18.0375 | 21.1735 | Yes |
| 27 | 19.7875 | 18.2195 | 21.3555 | Yes |
| 28 | 19.0860 | 17.5180 | 20.6539 | Yes |
| 29 | 20.2947 | 18.7267 | 21.8626 | Yes |
| 30 | 20.8227 | 19.2547 | 22.3906 | Yes |
| 31 | 20.8135 | 19.2455 | 22.3814 | Yes |
| 32 | 20.4291 | 18.8611 | 21.9971 | Yes |
| 33 | 20.7161 | 19.1481 | 22.2840 | Yes |
| 34 | 20.9180 | 19.3501 | 22.4860 | Yes |
| 35 | 18.4523 | 16.8843 | 20.0203 | Yes |
| 36 | 19.9630 | 18.3951 | 21.5310 | Yes |
| 37 | 20.2024 | 18.6345 | 21.7704 | Yes |
| 38 | 20.3805 | 18.8125 | 21.9485 | Yes |
| 39 | 18.7615 | 17.1936 | 20.3295 | Yes |
| 40 | 21.5749 | 20.0070 | 23.1429 | No |
| 41 | 18.5681 | 17.0001 | 20.1360 | Yes |
| 42 | 18.8332 | 17.2652 | 20.4011 | Yes |
| 43 | 18.8499 | 17.2819 | 20.4178 | Yes |
| 44 | 21.3178 | 19.7498 | 22.8858 | Yes |
| 45 | 20.7699 | 19.2019 | 22.3379 | Yes |
| 46 | 19.9889 | 18.4210 | 21.5569 | Yes |
| 47 | 19.6187 | 18.0507 | 21.1866 | Yes |
| 48 | 19.5358 | 17.9678 | 21.1038 | Yes |
| 49 | 21.4226 | 19.8546 | 22.9905 | Yes |
| 50 | 20.1620 | 18.5940 | 21.7299 | Yes |
| 51 | 19.8137 | 18.2458 | 21.3817 | Yes |
| 52 | 19.6523 | 18.0843 | 21.2202 | Yes |
| 53 | 19.7612 | 18.1932 | 21.3292 | Yes |
| 54 | 19.7963 | 18.2283 | 21.3643 | Yes |
| 55 | 20.2081 | 18.6401 | 21.7761 | Yes |
| 56 | 19.4129 | 17.8449 | 20.9808 | Yes |
| 57 | 19.5243 | 17.9563 | 21.0923 | Yes |
| 58 | 20.1251 | 18.5572 | 21.6931 | Yes |
| 59 | 20.2598 | 18.6918 | 21.8278 | Yes |
| 60 | 19.9810 | 18.4131 | 21.5490 | Yes |
| 61 | 20.7573 | 19.1893 | 22.3253 | Yes |
| 62 | 21.5970 | 20.0290 | 23.1650 | No |
| 63 | 20.2465 | 18.6786 | 21.8145 | Yes |
| 64 | 19.1947 | 17.6267 | 20.7627 | Yes |
| 65 | 20.9901 | 19.4221 | 22.5581 | Yes |
| 66 | 19.4725 | 17.9045 | 21.0405 | Yes |
| 67 | 20.8965 | 19.3285 | 22.4645 | Yes |
| 68 | 19.9160 | 18.3480 | 21.4839 | Yes |
| 69 | 20.1580 | 18.5900 | 21.7260 | Yes |
| 70 | 20.6495 | 19.0816 | 22.2175 | Yes |
| 71 | 20.1270 | 18.5590 | 21.6950 | Yes |
| 72 | 20.0944 | 18.5265 | 21.6624 | Yes |
| 73 | 20.2323 | 18.6643 | 21.8003 | Yes |
| 74 | 20.8797 | 19.3118 | 22.4477 | Yes |
| 75 | 20.8140 | 19.2460 | 22.3820 | Yes |
| 76 | 19.6054 | 18.0374 | 21.1733 | Yes |
| 77 | 20.0182 | 18.4502 | 21.5861 | Yes |
| 78 | 19.7587 | 18.1907 | 21.3266 | Yes |
| 79 | 19.9921 | 18.4241 | 21.5601 | Yes |
| 80 | 18.7182 | 17.1502 | 20.2861 | Yes |
| 81 | 20.8364 | 19.2684 | 22.4044 | Yes |
| 82 | 19.4208 | 17.8528 | 20.9888 | Yes |
| 83 | 19.7600 | 18.1920 | 21.3279 | Yes |
| 84 | 18.2905 | 16.7225 | 19.8585 | No |
| 85 | 19.3568 | 17.7888 | 20.9247 | Yes |
| 86 | 18.7859 | 17.2180 | 20.3539 | Yes |
| 87 | 20.5878 | 19.0198 | 22.1557 | Yes |
| 88 | 19.5725 | 18.0046 | 21.1405 | Yes |
| 89 | 19.0180 | 17.4501 | 20.5860 | Yes |
| 90 | 20.6607 | 19.0927 | 22.2287 | Yes |
| 91 | 18.3442 | 16.7762 | 19.9121 | No |
| 92 | 19.4640 | 17.8961 | 21.0320 | Yes |
| 93 | 21.3936 | 19.8256 | 22.9616 | Yes |
| 94 | 18.8794 | 17.3115 | 20.4474 | Yes |
| 95 | 21.2391 | 19.6712 | 22.8071 | Yes |
| 96 | 19.9013 | 18.3333 | 21.4692 | Yes |
| 97 | 21.2822 | 19.7142 | 22.8501 | Yes |
| 98 | 20.2120 | 18.6440 | 21.7799 | Yes |
| 99 | 21.2224 | 19.6545 | 22.7904 | Yes |
| 100 | 19.9173 | 18.3493 | 21.4852 | Yes |
With independent normal observations and known population SD, the sample mean has normal law with center μ and SE σ / √n at every n. The simulator generates sample means directly as 20 + (σ / √n) × Z, rather than generating n individual observations. Each interval uses its own mean ± z* × SE; the estimator’s interval formula does not use the simulator’s true mean to position its bounds.
A seed-1309 32-bit LCG gives open-unit positions to a Box-Muller normal transform, preparing 2000 standardized draws in 20 batches of 100. Selecting size or spread rescales the same draws; confidence changes margins around unchanged centers. Under this common-draw normal comparison, both mean error and margin scale together, so inclusion stays fixed at the same confidence. Next batch uses another set of standardized draws and may change capture counts. Finite pseudorandom examples do not prove independence or exact coverage.
Confidence 95% describes coverage of this procedure across repeated independent samples under its assumptions, up to numerical normal-critical approximation. Each computed interval either contains the fixed mean or misses it. This is not a posterior probability for that particular interval or a percentage of individual observations within it. Finite batches need not equal confidence exactly, and an all-capture batch does not establish guaranteed coverage. The true mean never moves; sample means move.
All shown intervals and their center markers fit the fixed −40 to 80 window for the prepared batches and allowed parameters; the simulation does not clamp endpoints. Unknown-SD t intervals, non-normal approximations, dependence, biased samples, testing and power are outside scope. Source spread and size affect width, while selected confidence is a separate control. Numeric critical distances invert the Abramowitz–Stegun 26.2.17 normal-tail approximation.
NIST · Confidence intervals, fixed parameters and repeated coverage